Threat modeling

Threat modeling is a structured analytical process that identifies, enumerates, and prioritizes potential threats to a system by systematically examining assets, trust boundaries, data flows, and adversary capabilities relative to the system's architecture. Applied in combination with attack surface analysis and vulnerability analysis, threat modeling produces an integrated picture of where the system is most exposed and what the consequences of successful exploitation would be. Analysis should draw on findings from similar systems, components, or services where applicable, leveraging documented threat experience from comparable missions or architectures to avoid re-learning known lessons. The outputs of threat modeling must directly inform design decisions throughout the development process, with attack surface reduction treated as a design objective rather than a post-development hardening activity: interfaces, services, protocols, and code paths that are not necessary to mission function should be eliminated or constrained before they become embedded in the architecture. Threat model artifacts should be treated as living documents, updated as the system design evolves and as new threat intelligence becomes available.

ID: CM0020
Tier: I
Ground CM 
Created: 2022/10/19
Last Modified: 2026/08/06

Pre-Operations Government

Acquisition requirements should mandate threat modeling as a formal, recurring engineering activity with defined entry and exit criteria at each major development phase, ensuring that threat analysis informs architecture decisions before they are locked in rather than being conducted as a compliance exercise after the design is complete. Requirements should specify that threat modeling outputs, including identified threats, attack surface analysis results, and recommended mitigations, be documented and submitted as controlled deliverables subject to government review at each relevant program milestone. Contract language should require that threat models be updated whenever significant changes to system architecture, interfaces, operational environment, or threat intelligence occur, and that the updated model be reviewed and approved before the associated design changes are accepted. Flow-down provisions should require subcontractors contributing components or subsystems to participate in or provide inputs to the threat modeling process, ensuring that component-level threats are visible at the system level. Evaluation criteria should assess offerors' threat modeling methodology, their experience applying threat analysis to space or similarly constrained embedded systems, and their demonstrated ability to translate threat model findings into concrete design decisions.

Pre-Operations Developer/Supplier

Threat modeling should begin at the system concept phase, before architecture decisions are made, so that the analysis can shape the design rather than react to it; an initial model developed from high-level architecture diagrams and mission context should be refined iteratively as the design matures. The threat modeling process should systematically examine system interfaces, trust boundaries, data flows, communication links, components, and dependencies, with particular attention to boundaries between spacecraft, ground systems, and external entities. Attack surface analysis should produce a quantified or ranked characterization of the system's exposure across its interfaces and entry points, with the results used to drive explicit design decisions that eliminate unnecessary interfaces, restrict protocol options, and enforce least-privilege access across system boundaries. Threat model tooling should support version control and collaborative development so that the model can be maintained across a distributed engineering team and updated as design changes are incorporated. Analysis of threat experience from similar systems, including publicly documented incidents, vulnerability research relevant to the technology stack, and mission-specific threat intelligence, should be incorporated as structured inputs to the modeling process rather than informally considered background material.